Months following the rapid rebel offensive led by Islamists that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria continues to be a nation in crisis. The recently formed transitional administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is facing increasing security issues, with violent opposition from remaining Assad supporters. Although the breakdown of Assad’s repressive government was a significant milestone in Syria’s 13-year civil war, achieving lasting peace and stability is turning out to be extremely complex.
The interim government, primarily made up of individuals who gained influence from opposition areas such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a nation left divided and ravaged by prolonged conflict. The elimination of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has led to the displacement of countless former regime members and supporters. A significant number of these individuals have declined to accept the new government’s authority, contributing to instability that jeopardizes the delicate administration.
A persistent menace from supporters of Assad
In the periods following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a major rebel force. These leftovers of the former regime, many deeply rooted in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political structures, have utilized their existing networks to coordinate armed opposition. This revolt has been especially active in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional strongholds of the Assad lineage and residence to a substantial portion of Syria’s Alawite minority.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has lately documented a lethal ambush in Latakia province, where armed individuals assaulted government troops trying to capture a former Assad official. The assault resulted in the deaths of no less than 13 security members and triggered a surge of violence in the area. By the next day, conflicts had intensified, causing more than 120 fatalities—highlighting the formidable obstacles confronting the interim administration.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research body, has cautioned that Assad loyalists may constitute some of the most proficient insurgent groups in Syria. Their expertise in military strategy and capacity to exploit existing networks provide them with a tactical edge in orchestrating assaults against the new regime. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating insurgency is the primary hurdle to solidifying control and maintaining national security.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research organization, has warned that Assad loyalists are likely to form some of the most effective insurgent cells in Syria. Their familiarity with military tactics and their ability to utilize established networks give them a strategic advantage in coordinating attacks against the new government. For interim President Sharaa, this growing insurgency represents the most significant obstacle to consolidating authority and ensuring national security.
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have intensified the friction between Syria’s Sunni-led interim government and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect that was the core of Assad’s administration. The Alawites, who held influence and advantages during Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks following its downfall. Despite Sharaa’s promises to honor Syria’s varied religious groups, many now feel excluded and under threat.
The insurgent activity in Latakia and Tartous has further strained relations between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional government and the Alawite minority, a Shia offshoot that formed the backbone of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who enjoyed privileges and power under the Assad government, have faced significant losses in the aftermath of its collapse. Many now feel marginalized and targeted, despite Sharaa’s assurances that his administration will respect Syria’s diverse religious communities.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles
Apart from the pressing security challenges, Syria’s transitional leadership faces a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, with the nation still enduring harsh international sanctions imposed during Assad’s era. Sharaa’s administration has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as crucial for economic recovery and securing legitimacy internationally.
Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.
However, Western nations remain wary of Sharaa’s intentions, with some questioning whether the new government can truly break from the oppressive practices of the Assad era. This skepticism has slowed efforts to secure international support, leaving Syria’s economy in a precarious position. The interim government’s ability to revitalize the country will depend on its success in addressing both internal security concerns and external diplomatic challenges.
A country divided
For Sharaa, the challenge of bringing the nation together involves winning the people’s trust as much as it does defeating the insurgent menace. His administration has urged ex-members of Assad’s security apparatus to lay down their arms and embrace reconciliation, yet advancement has been gradual. “We are monitoring everyone, but we aim to avoid giving the impression of a witch hunt,” stated a senior official in the interim government. This careful strategy illustrates the fragile equilibrium the new leadership must maintain as it seeks to re-establish order without isolating important parts of the populace.
For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.
The road ahead
Simultaneously, Syria’s leaders are under increasing international examination as they strive to remove sanctions and obtain the necessary support for reconstruction. For the transitional government, success will rely on effectively tackling the roots of unrest, promoting inclusivity, and showing a true dedication to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.